SHOPify in news

SHOP has been in the news lately regarding the acquisition of a logistic company.

Prices are as of the close of Friday, May 6, 2022.

As in all previous illustrations, Green lines are periods of LONG, Red lines show periods of SHORT, and Blue lines are periods of NO POSITION.

The weekly is the dominant signal. So in this example, the only possible daily position in the year 2022 is SHORT.

 

ARK Innovation ETF ARKK

Like many investors, I was impressed by the incredible upside performance of Cathie Wood’s ETF  ARKK  in 2020.

The holdings include Tesla, Zoom, Roku, Teledoc Health, and Coinbase Global.

With the exception of Telsa, most are down a considerable amount this year.

Despite the large underperformance of ARKK, many investors are staying the course, according to Monday’s (April 25, 2022)  Wall Street Journal.

The following Monthly and Daily chart of ARKK portrays the recent price decline.

Price is as of the close today, Tuesday, April 26, 2022.

SHW revisited. Swing Trading at its best.

As many of my readers know, I have been following Sherwin Williams for many years. It qualifies in most metrics as a solid company financially and has been an outstanding holding in many portfolios.

The caveat is that if you have the ability to adjust your potfolio when certain stocks are not gaining at price but declining, then SHW has been in and out of your portfolio many times in the past few years.

Using the weekly price action as the guide and the daily price action as your trigger, the following charts are a good example of good timing in SHW.

As usual, green lines represent the time of being long on the weekly, if only the daily agrees.

 

Long-only from April of 2020 until the end of January 2021. Then long-only from April of 2021 until Mid January 2022. Short only from February 11, 2022.

The daily charts are the actual trade trigger.

 

This is an example of how swing trading is supposed to work. Prices are as of the close on Friday, March 11, 2022.

PayPal

Paypal has been one of the more active stocks for the last few weeks.

Obviously, someone or a group of someone had a head start on the decline.

The following graph of the weekly activity should be helpful in coming to that conclusion.

In October of 2021, the decline began.

The daily chart should through further light.

As in all previous charts, the red line signifies SELL, the Green line, BUY, and the Blue line indicates close out the previous position

Netflix Peloton

Recently, earnings and comments from Netflix and Peloton have resulted in severe losses for many investors.

Forwarned is forearmed.

Attached are recent graphs of both as of the close of Friday, January 21, 2022.

Another Example of Swing Trading selection.

Nvidia turned up as successfully passing the better than average Clean Surplus ROE sometime in 2016 when the share price was under $25. As of the close on Friday, November 12, 2021, it was at 303.50. On May 28, 2021, the weekly signaled a purchase under $160. The daily trade trigger signaled a purchase most recently on October 14, 2021, at a price less than $217. NVDA is one of the many high-quality shares that could be in a Swing Trading portfolio. Buy when both the weekly and daily agree. Stay on the sidelines during periods of disagreement.

Regeneron

A few posts back, I discussed ‘echo trades’.

Find a stock in a clearly defined uptrend, wait for a pullback, and when the uptrend shows a continuation, jump on board.

Since that post, I have put into place a better method of trend analysis.

The following graphs of Regeneron (REGN) should be a good illustration.

As in all my illustrations, Green vertical lines indicate Buying points. Red vertical lines indicate Selling points and Blue illustrates Close position.

The weekly graph represents the long-term direction. In this case, REGN since June 2021 has been in an upward trending direction.

The trading decision however should be made in a shorter time frame. In the following picture of REGN DAILY, it should be clear that, although the long-term direction is up, the shorted term direction has been down. The long position created in August was closed in September.

If you would like an analysis of one of your holdings, please email me at rfeit@msn.com or rfeit1941@gmail.com.

 

 

Back to the Beginning

In 2010 when I started this post, I recommended that one of the better methods of selecting equities was to find those sectors that were showing high relative strength with positive momentum. Selecting the highest relative strength sector with positive momentum should outperform.

I chose four sectors as illustrations.

XLE: Energy (Green)

XLY: Consumer Discretionary (Red)

XLU: Utilities (Cyan)

XTN: Transportation (Yellow)

The following chart as of the close of Friday, July 9, 2021, shows the current relative strength of these four sectors.

Artificial Intelligence and Trading.

In the last few weeks, I have investigated a few AI(Artificial Intelligence) platforms in the hope that one or more vendors of this new technology could enhance my trading results.

The quick answer is maybe, but the research has found a troubling example of what could go wrong.

A new  ETF that is based on AI is was offered on October 17, 2017: AEIQ.

To quote from its informational site:

“The fund applies proprietary algorithms to artificial intelligence (AI) technology which can process over one million pieces of information per day to build predictive financial models on approximately 6,000 U.S. companies. The technology continually analysis data and models in its active stock selection process, and derives an optimal risk adjusted portfolio consisting of companies with high opportunities for capital appreciation. The fund is actively-managed and discloses all portfolio holdings daily.”

The informational information About AEIQ also states that “The system mimics a team of 1,000 research analysts working around the clock analyzing millions of data points each day.”

“Harnesses the power  of IBM Watson.”

The performance of this ETF should answer the basic question that I have had in my investigation; Does AI work?

The answer as it relates to the AEIQ ETF is sometimes yes, sometimes no.

The following graph of the relative performance of AEIQ and the SPY ETF, which represents the S&P 500 index starting in August 2020.

The AEIQ ETF started life on 10/17/2017 at an offering price of $25. On Friday, April 9, 2012, it closed at 39.48, an increase of 57.92%

The S&P 500 on 10/17/2017  was 256.25. It closed on Friday, April 9, 2021, at 411.49, an increase of 60.58%

The above chart, like all the other charts on this bog, has green, blue, and red vertical lines.  Green vertical lines are the place where AEIQ is performing, on a relative strength basis, better than the SPY ETF and AEIQ has positive momentum. Red vertical lines show the times that AEIQ is performing worse than the SPY on a relative strength basis and has negative momentum. Blue lines are the indication to close the current position.

The better way to use the AIEQ ETF would be to invest in  AEIQ  when, on a relative strength basis, it is stronger than the SPY ETF and AEIQ has positive momentum. The basic swing trading method I have been talking about in this blog since day one.

“Echo Trades”

Unless you are in a cloister or on a desert island, most of us have recently been contacted in one way or another by the recent Rob Booker promotion. The latest is about a discovery by an East Tennesee farmer named Jeffrey Turnmile who has generated, in the latest 12 month period, a return in excess of 4000 percent. I have nothing but respect for Rob Booker, who in the past has promoted many such “discovered” traders with outstanding results. Mr. Turnmile has found what they call; Echo Trades.

The reverse engineering of this amazing ‘discovery’ looks very similar to what I have been talking about for the last 10 plus years been discussing in this blog. Identify the trend, then jump in.

The main difference is that Mr. Turnmile, after discovering the trend, waits for a pullback.

He proposes buying trend continuations in an uptrend, wait for a pullback, and at the continuation of the basic trend, trade the continuation.

The continuation becomes the ‘echo trade’.

That’s all folks. Easy Peasy.

An example of what can be accomplished with this basic Echo Trade strategy is the following chart of EPD, Enterprise Products Partners.

One of the scanning services generated this security. Strong buy with analysts price target greater than 20% with a dividend yield greater than 2.5 %.

The weekly chart of EPD shows an uptrend beginning at the end of November 2020.

 

The above, daily chart of EPD. The  Green vertical lines showing BUY. The blue vertical lines showing a CLOSE long position.

Continuing this practice in this security should result in nice continuing profits.

A portfolio of similar securities could possibly replicate Mr. Turnmile’s results.

Please contact me at 516-902-7402 with any questions.