SPY Daily and 130 Minute

As of the close of Friday, January 5, 2024, there were no breakouts of high-volume optional stocks and ETFs.

I have attached the Daily and 130-minute picture of SPY using PerfectStorm


and 130 Minutes:




Five new breakouts on Monday.

As of the close of Monday, October 16, 2023, a scan of high-volume options using PerfectStorm found five breakout candidates.






SPY Swing trading strategy.

No new breakouts or breakdowns from Tuesday, October 3, 2023, but the following illustration of SPY, the ETF representing the S&P 500 should illustrated where we have been and what the present looks like.

SPY  using PerfectStorm strategy:

Swing trading breakouts

As of the close of Wednesday, August 30, 2023. PerfectStorm scan of high-volume options found six breakout candidates.






and PDD:

One swing trading breakout. Market Warning!

There were no breakouts during the last few days of this week, but there is one breakout as of the close today., Friday, August 4, 2023.

Increasing VXX oftentimes predicts market declines.


Perhaps the following illustration of the relative strength between the SPY ETF and the VXX ETF will demonstrate the danger better.


Another Stock Market Indicator

In the past, I have illustrated a few ratios that have measured investor sentiment on future stock market direction.

In this post, I will add another, the relative strength between the consumer discretionary sector (XLY ) and consumer staples(XLP).

Historically when the consumer discretionary sector (XLY) outperforms the discretionary sector(XLP), the overall market (SPY) has been bullish.

The relative strength swap doe not always indicates a change, but the trade-off is always worth noticing.

The following is the relative strength of XLY vs XLP with the SPY as of the close of Monday, January 9, 2023.

As illustrated, XLP is still doing better than XLY.

TACK ETF looks like a winner.

In the current issue (December 2022) of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, there is an interview with Katie Stockton,  a founder,

and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies LLC.

Fairchild, which uses technical analysis as its main focus, has developed a sector-focused actively managed ETF; Fairchild Tactactical Sector (TACK) which started trading at $25.00 on March 22, 2022.

The universe of ETFs for TACK includes the 11 Select Sector SPDRs as well as SPDR Gold (GLD) and SPTL and SPTS, the long and short-term SPDR ETFs.

The fund, according to the article, holds from five to eight positions in the portfolio at any one time.

The fund rebalances, that is, adjusts on a monthly basis. It uses monthly data only.

I assume it uses some sort of relative strength algorithm.


The relative performance to the overall market ETF SPY has been very nice.

The following chart shows that from the funds’ inception to the close yesterday, December 21, 2022.

TACK, from its inception of $25.00 to the close of December 21, 2022, of $23.70 has lost approximately 5.48%, while the SPY on that date was at 446.53 and at the close of December 21, 2022, was at 363.23,  a loss of approximately 18.65% Excellent relative performance of plus 13.17%  over the approximately eight-month period.

There are numerous ways to trade this rising star ETF. A pair’s trade or outright long when it has high relative strength with positive momentum.

Early Warning Indicator

Market Timing, another look

In one of my former posts, December 7, 2020, I discussed looking at the relative relationship between the bond market and the equity market to gauge investor sentiment. In that post I stated:

“In the past, which is certainly no predictor of future behavior, the movement of the U.S. Treasury note and bond market, has behaved in an almost opposite manner to the equity market. The avoidance of equity risk has shifted the money flow into the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries and vice versa. In the past then, the equity market has been negatively correlated to the Treasury market. So, when equities are getting strong, Treasuries should be getting weaker, etc.”

The following is a chart of SPY and EDV as of the close yesterday, January 27, 2021, and it appears from the attached that the equity market is still in a nice uptrend.

I have added a 200-day exponential moving average to the present illustration.

Some have noted, historically, that when the SPY is considerably above the 200-day moving average, that a correction may occur. Yesterday’s close meets those criteria. In February 2018, prior to a correction, the 200-day moving average was approximately 12% above the index. Yesterday’s close was approximately the same.

Relative Strength

In the many past posts, I have recommended that to be successful in swing trading, one has to be aware of the individual securities relative strength as it compares to some index of its peers.

The following chart is an example of  OIH which is the oil VanEck oil services ETF. I have compared this ETF to SPY, which represents the Standard & Poors 500 index.


The prices are as of the close yesterday, January 12, 2021.

The rules are very simple, and the action indicated by the up and down arrows reflects the result of following the rules.

  1. Buy when the target security is stronger, on a relative strength basis than the index.
  2. Buy ONLY when the target is stronger, has positive momentum, and the index is also going up.
  3. Close the position when any condition is violated. Shown by blue vertical lines.
  4. The rules apply to shorting when the actions are the opposite of the buy rules.